Australia ranks below Botswana for economic complexity. Our only hope for remaining internationally competitive is to grow the things we invent to a size that matters on the world stage, writes Greg Miller.
Australia is a nation of ideas. We boast world-class universities, Nobel laureates, breakthrough scientists, and a thriving startup community. But in the hard metrics – economic complexity, technology exports, and sovereign industrial capability – we are quickly slipping behind our OECD peers.
We have no problem inventing things. We have a problem with growing and keeping them. For more than a decade, government, and industry have invested in “Zero to One” initiatives: accelerators, precincts, incubators, tax incentives. These have worked. Hundreds of startups
emerge each year.
Yet only 1–5% of Australian startups successfully scale into mid-sized firms valued over US$50 million. By contrast, countries like Israel, Sweden and Canada have deliberately built scale-up infrastructure that turns startups into globally competitive enterprises. The result? Jobs, exports, sovereign capability—and resilience in an era of geopolitical upheaval.
Australia, meanwhile, is stuck in consultation mode. The R&D Review, the National Productivity Council, the endless roundtables—worthy, but insufficient. While we review, others act.
A global race for sovereign tech
This is not an academic debate. Technological sovereignty is the new industrial arms race. The United States has supercharged domestic manufacturing with the CHIPS and Inflation Reduction Acts. Europe is spending €1.5 trillion annually on energy transition. China, France, the UK, and Canada have embedded scale-up capability into their national economic strategies.
Meanwhile, Australia ranks 105th out of 145 nations in Harvard’s economic complexity rankings – sandwiched between Botswana & the Ivory Coast. The OECD average for R&D spending is 2.73%. Ours is 1.68%. The Tech Council of Australia estimates just 1% of our tech workforce has experience with growing businesses, compared with 17% in Singapore and 13% in the US.
These are more than numbers. They are flashing red lights on our future competitiveness.
The Federal Government has rightly identified National Missions where Australia must lead:
Energy Transition, Housing, Defence, AI, Health, Resources, Agriculture. Each represents a multi-billion-dollar market and a generational opportunity. But missions are meaningless without the capability to deliver.
Take Energy: Chris Bowen has flagged $1.5 trillion will be required by 2050 to reach net zero. Yet without sovereign companies to design, build, and export the technologies of transition, we will simply import solutions and offshore the jobs.
Or take Housing: Australia will be short 3 million homes by 2050, and affordability is now the worst in the OECD. Technology – from modular construction to AI-driven approvals – can unlock supply. But without commercial pathways, promising housing tech startups will wither or move offshore.
It’s the same story for AI, where Treasurer Jim Chalmers has called for urgent investment to ensure Australians can adapt and adopt AI with confidence. Without homegrown Australian AI ventures of significant size, we will become permanent consumers of foreign platforms, surrendering economic and data sovereignty alike.
Time to build companies
Letting a thousand flowers bloom makes little sense when someone else is harvesting the crop. That is what Australia is doing by failing to support the growth of startups to scale-ups.
We already know what works. International blueprints exist. Canada’s MaRS Discovery District, built over 20 years, catalysed 1,200 companies, 30,000 jobs, $20 billion in capital, and $30 billion in GDP impact. The UK, Sweden, France and Germany have created similar infrastructure. These ecosystems were seeded by the government but powered by private execution.
The model is clear: government provides catalytic capital; experienced commercial leaders deliver programs that help founders scale. The reward is outsized: jobs, exports, sovereign skills, and tax revenues that repay the initial investment many times over.
Australia must now move decisively from “Zero to One” to “One to One Hundred”. That means building a national scale-up ecosystem—purpose-built infrastructure that helps promising ventures raise Series A/B capital, secure enterprise customers, access global markets, and grow from early traction to $100m+ revenues.
A national platform aligned to National Missions, staffed by operators who have lived the journey, backed by world-class data, talent, and venture services.
Why urgency matters
Every month we delay, another cohort of startups either stagnates or sells out. When that happens, intellectual property, jobs, and tax revenues flow overseas. In a world where tariffs threaten exports, and AI and defence technologies are redefining national security, Australia cannot afford to be a passenger.
The government has the levers in hand. The R&D Review can move from tax tinkering to capability building. The National Productivity Council can measure impact in jobs, exports, and sovereign capability—not just consultation completed. Industry, superannuation, and venture capital are ready to co-invest if the Commonwealth leads.
Given how little capital has been deployed from programs like FMIA, IGP & NRF, this money could be purposed towards building true sovereign capability at a meaningful scale.
“Letting a thousand flowers bloom makes little sense when someone else is harvesting the crop.”
Greg Miller
The choice is stark–back our ideas to grow or allow others to reap the benefits. We can continue the cycle of reviews, reports, and ribbon-cuttings while our best companies sell out or relocate overseas. Or we can finally back our ambition with action—by building a national technology scale-up ecosystem that aligns with our National Missions, attracts private investment, and creates sovereign capability for generations.
This is not a bet; it’s insurance. Insurance against geopolitical shocks. Insurance against economic stagnation. Insurance that our children’s prosperity will not depend on the strategic whims of others.
The window is closing. Other nations are moving at speed and scale. If Australia doesn’t act now we will condemn ourselves to the sidelines of the global innovation economy.
Look back on the week that was with hand-picked articles from Australia and around the world. Sign up to the Forbes Australia newsletter here or become a member here.
