Topline
Gas prices neared $3.70 on Sunday and are on track to reach a national average of $4 per gallon next week, an analyst predicted—even as the International Energy Agency’s planned release of 400 million barrels of reserve oil begins entering markets next week as the Iran war continues to push prices up across the globe.
Analysts expect gas prices will remain high across the U.S., despite the International Energy Agency’s planned release of 400 million barrels of reserve oil.
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Key Facts
The IEA’s planned release of 400 million barrels of reserve oil will “soon start flowing to global markets,” the agency said in an update on Sunday.
Despite this, GasBuddy analyst Patrick De Haan predicted average diesel prices would reach $5 per gallon this week, while the national average price for regular gasoline would approach $4 per gallon.
The national average gas price was $3.67 per gallon on Sunday, according to GasBuddy, while AAA estimated the national average at $3.69 per gallon, up from $2.98 the week before the war.
Oil prices are expected to remain high as well—Brent crude oil prices reached $103.86 by Sunday afternoon, and analysts at Goldman Sachs expect the average price per barrel will remain over $100 in March, Reuters reported.
What Has The White House Said About Gas Prices?
Speaking to NBC News in an interview on Saturday, President Donald Trump shrugged off concerns about rising gas prices, even predicting “I think they’ll go lower than they were before, and I had them at record lows.” The president also said he was “not concerned at all” about whether higher prices at the pump would harm Republicans’ chances in the 2026 midterm elections. On Sunday, Energy Secretary Chris Wright repeated Trump’s optimism, but acknowledged gas prices were causing pain at the moment. Speaking to “Meet the Press,” Wright predicted prices would begin falling “after the conflict is over.” The energy secretary said he was “so proud” of Trump’s decision to enter the conflict alongside Israel on Feb. 28, but admitted “Americans are feeling it right now. Americans will feel it for a few more weeks. But at the end, we will have removed the greatest risk to global energy supplies.” Wright said there was a “very good chance” gas prices could fall below $3 per gallon over the summer, but also admitted “you know, there’s no guarantees in war.” On ABC News’ “This Week,” Wright predicted the war would “certainly come to the end in the next few weeks, allowing oil shipments to travel safely through the Strait of Hormuz again—increasing supply and theoretically bringing prices down. However, analysts including De Haan were previously skeptical of this idea. On Saturday, the GasBuddy analyst predicted average gas prices “aren’t likely to drop back fully down to pre-war prices until later this year, since seasonal factors will prevent a full drop back down.” Gas prices typically rise over the summer as producers switch to summer blend gasoline—a change mandated by the Environmental Protection Agency intended to reduce smog and air pollution, but one that also slightly spikes average gas prices due to higher refining costs, among other factors.
Big Number
$5.50 per gallon. That’s the average price for gasoline in California, the state with the current highest average price, as of Sunday. It’s one of ten states with average prices higher than the national average, which also include Washington, Oregon, Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, Florida, Pennsylvania and Illinois, according to GasBuddy’s estimates.
Key Background
The U.S. and Israel began a campaign of air strikes against Iran on Feb. 28. Iran responded with retaliatory missile and drone strikes against Israel and U.S. bases in Middle Eastern states, as well as by closing the Strait of Hormuz—the narrow waterway separating Iran from the Arabian Peninsula through which an estimated 20% of the world’s oil travels. Since the closure, at least 16 vessels have been attacked while trying to traverse the Strait since the war began, Reuters estimated. Trump and other U.S. officials have telegraphed future plans to secure the Strait. However, when asked if the waterway was safe on “Meet the Press,” the energy secretary said “no, no it’s not.”
