Content creator-turned-boxer Jake Paul will take on heavyweight champion Anthony Joshua on Friday in an anticipated match livestreamed by Netflix, though the odds are not in Paul’s favor as some commentators have suggested boxing’s reputation is on the line, fearing a Paul victory would be “embarrassing” for the sport.
Getty Images for Netflix
Key Takeaways
- Joshua, a British boxer who is a two-time heavyweight world champion and an Olympic gold medalist, is the heavy favorite to win on Friday, according to many online betting platforms.
- On Polymarket, where bettors have wagered nearly $7 million on the fight, Joshua has an 87% chance to win, while Paul has just an 11% and the remainder is no winner or draw.
- Kalshi bettors, who have wagered nearly $6 million on the match, similarly give Joshua an 85% chance to win, with Paul lagging far behind with a 15% shot.
- DraftKings odds also show Joshua as the clear favorite, with -1200 odds and Paul with +700 odds, while other DraftKings bets favor the match lasting more than 2.5 rounds and the fight ending with Joshua knocking out Paul.
- On FanDuel, Joshua has -900 odds to win, while other bets favor Joshua throwing and landing the most punches and that the fight won’t “go the distance,” or that the fight will not conclude without a knockout.
When And Where Will The Fight Air?
The Joshua-Paul fight will air live on Netflix on Friday at 8 p.m. EST. The fight will follow preliminary matches that will stream live on Netflix’s website Tudum starting at 4:45 p.m. EST. The preliminary fights will include Australian bantamweight champion Cherneka Johnson vs. Canadian boxer Amanda Galle, British lightweight world champion Caroline Dubois vs. Italian boxer Camilla Panatta and Brazilian Olympian Keno Marley vs. American Diarra Davis Jr.
How Much Money Will Paul And Joshua Make From The Fight?
It’s unclear, but probably a big sum. In a post on X last month, Paul said: “Stop asking me. $267 Million,” ostensibly answering fans who had asked for the prize total. But Joshua appeared to dispute this, telling TMZ in December that the fight will not be the biggest payday of his career, though he didn’t elaborate on how much he would make.
How Big Is The Fight For Netflix?
The broadcast is expected to be a viewership hit for Netflix. CNN reported the event is “set to break yet more viewership records” for the streaming platform, while Paul’s boxing promoter Nakisa Bidarian said they are aiming for the fight to become the most-watched boxing event of 2025. The fight will be Paul’s second boxing match streamed live on Netflix, after he fought and defeated former heavyweight champion Mike Tyson in November 2024, which was reportedly the most-watched sporting event ever with 108 million live viewers globally. Netflix has pivoted to live programming and sporting events in recent years, acquiring the rights to WWE’s weekly “Raw” program and NFL Christmas Day games. Netflix has also struck deals to air MLB games starting in 2026 and the FIFA Women’s World Cup in 2027.
How Is The Boxing World Reacting To The Fight?
Some commentators have criticized the fight, noting Paul and Joshua are mismatched in height and weight. Joshua is six feet, six inches tall and 245 points, while Paul is five inches shorter and 20 pounds lighter. Critics have also suggested Joshua fighting Paul—especially losing to him—could harm Joshua’s legacy as a boxing champion. “It’s dangerous for one, and two, if Jake Paul even lands a glove on him it just diminishes everything that he’s achieved,” British boxer Dave Allen said. British boxing promoter Frank Warren said the fight has “car crash written all over it,” suggesting Joshua agreed to the fight for a big payday instead of an evenly matched challenge. Joshua’s promoter Eddie Hearn said losing to Paul would be an “absolute disaster and awfully embarrassing” in a BBC column, but admitted Joshua agreed to the fight because it would raise his profile in the United States. Hearn said Joshua’s strategy is to “knock Jake out asap,” then “go into normal service being resumed in 2026.”
What Have Paul And Joshua Said About The Fight?
The boxers have stepped up trash talk ahead of the fight. Earlier this week, a reporter asked Joshua if he would go easy on Paul, and the boxer said: “If I can kill you, I’ll kill.” The comments sparked some backlash, including from boxer Tyson Fury, who called Joshua a “classless loser,” though Joshua doubled down and said, “It’s my job, we fight. We have a licence to kill.” Joshua said he plans to beat Paul “breaking him down spiritually and mentally” and said it would be a “failure” if he can’t knock out Paul in the first round.
Tangent
Paul ranked No. 3 on Forbes’ list of the top-earning creators of 2025, with estimated earnings of $50 million. In 2024, Joshua ranked No. 16 on Forbes’ list of the top-earning athletes, with estimated earnings of $83 million.
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This story was originally published on forbes.com and all figures are in USD.
