Elon Musk poured at least $458 million into the midterms, and the results suggest it bought him very little.
Elon Musk’s pinned tweet—at least until Tuesday night—sums up his thoughts succinctly: If Democrats won the midterms, and then the presidency in 2028, it would be “the end of democracy in any meaningful sense of the word.” In his telling, Democrats would abolish the filibuster, pack the Supreme Court, expand the Senate and institute open borders, all policies that he claims would lock Republicans out of power forever.
In the waning days of the campaign, the richest man in the world put his money where his mouth was, flooding races across the country with at least $458 million, according to Federal Election Commission filings and other reporting. That’s far more than any other donor—at least three times as much as the billionaire Uihlein couple in second place, per New York Times estimates.
It didn’t buy him much.
Forbes set out to track where Musk’s money went and what races it may have impacted. A review of campaign finance records and other reporting found at least ten political groups Musk gave directly to, either in his own name or through related entities. Then, Forbes examined spending records through November 2 to determine which candidates those groups spent to support. Musk also gave directly to 23 candidates’ campaigns.
The results form a sort of report card on Musk’s spending. Candidates in 106 House and Senate races had Musk’s support behind them. As of about 2:30 a.m. eastern time on Wednesday, 18 had won, all in seats Republicans were expected to win anyway. Another 44 had lost, and 44 races have still not been called.
To be sure, many races were flooded with money this year—it was reportedly the most expensive election cycle ever—and just because Musk gave to a group that spent money in a race doesn’t mean Musk’s money made the difference in that race. But the results indicate that his ROI on $458 million was not exactly high, raising questions about just how much money matters in a wave environment.
Overwhelmingly, the biggest beneficiary of Musk’s largesse was scandal-plagued Texas attorney general Ken Paxton, whose race against state senator James Talarico became this cycle’s marquee Senate matchup. Here’s the breakdown: Musk gave $75 million to the main GOP Senate super PAC, the Senate Leadership Fund, on September 9. He sent them another $83 million on September 23, a total of $158 million. Each time, SLF transferred matching amounts to another super PAC called Texas PAC, which was backing Paxton to the hilt. America PAC, his own political operation, spent another $47 million in the race, and a third PAC called Lone Star Liberty PAC—which had received a $10 million donation from him in August—backed Paxton, too. That’s a total of $215 million Musk dollars flooding ads and doorknockers into Texas. It seemed personal: “Talarico will vote to trans your kids,” Musk, the father of a transgender woman, posted on X two days before the election.
And it all came to naught: Talarico swept to a double-digit victory on Tuesday night, the first Democrat since 1988 to win a Senate race in Texas. He led a Democratic slate that also captured the Texas governor’s mansion and may even take the state legislature. “We just proved that all the money in the world is no match for the people of Texas,” Talarico said in his victory speech. “We just showed that a politics of division is no match for a politics of love. And we just sent a message to every billionaire megadonor—every trillionaire megadonor, every corrupt defender of this broken political system that in this state, in this country, power belongs to the people.”
“Data centers in space looking pretty appealing right now,” Musk posted early Wednesday morning, his first post in nine hours.
America PAC, entirely funded by $216 million from Musk, spent in at least 44 races all over the country. After Texas, its biggest money holes per FEC filings were shoring up Republican Senate candidates in Ohio ($9.7 million spent), Michigan ($9.2 million), Iowa ($3.3 million) and Maine ($2.3 million). Democrats won all four races Tuesday night.
Other Musk money wasn’t quite as easy to track. Beyond America PAC and the Texas PAC-bound SLF donations, Musk gave another $10 million to SLF, $30 million to the SLF’s sister organization for House races, the Congressional Leadership Fund, and $5 million to Trump-aligned MAGA Inc. All those groups spread his money out across the nation.
Musk also reportedly donated to the Republican Governors Association ($10 million) and the Republican Attorneys General Association ($2 million). Those groups concentrate their spending in competitive races, so Forbes is listing the results of every competitive gubernatorial and attorney general race in our analysis. Six Republican governors and just one Republican AG candidate in races considered competitive—out of 22 and 11, respectively—won. Six governor’s races and seven AG races remain uncalled.
Here are the results of every federal race that a group Musk backed directly spent in, organized by state, as well as results for competitive governor and attorney general races by party. Race results are called by the Associated Press.
Alabama
Al-sen: Musk Win
Al-2: Musk Loss
Al-gov: Musk Win
Alaska
AK-SEN: Result TBD
AK-AL: Result TBD
AK-GOV: Result TBD
AK ballot measure to repeal ranked-choice voting: Result TBD
Arizona
AZ-1: Result TBD
AZ-2: Result TBD
AZ-6: Result TBD
AZ-8: Result TBD
AZ-GOV: Result TBD
AZ-AG: Result TBD
Arkansas
AR-2: Result TBD
California
CA-4: MUSK LOSS (Musk-backed candidate lost in jungle primary)
CA-13: Result TBD
CA-22: Result TBD
CA-48: Result TBD
Colorado
CO-3: Result TBD
CO-4: Result TBD
CO-5: Result TBD
Co-8: Musk Loss
Florida
Fl-sen: Musk Win
Fl-1: Musk Win
Fl-6: Musk Win
FL-7: Result TBD
FL-9: Result TBD
FL-13: Result TBD
Fl-14: Musk Loss
Fl-16: Musk Win
Fl-22: Musk Loss
Fl-25: Musk Loss
FL-27: Result TBD
Fl-gov: Musk Win
Fl-ag: Musk Win
Georgia
Ga-sen: Musk Loss
Ga-9: Musk Win
Ga-14: Musk Win
Ga-gov: Musk Loss
Ga-ag: Musk Loss
Illinois
Il-15: Musk Win
Indiana
In-3: Musk Win
Iowa
Ia-sen: Musk Loss
Ia-1: Musk Loss
Ia-2: Musk Loss
Ia-3: Musk Loss
Ia-gov: Musk Loss
IA-AG: Result TBD
Kansas
Ks-sen: Musk Loss
KS-GOV: Result TBD
KS-AG: Result TBD
Kentucky
Ky-6: Musk Loss
Louisiana
La-sen: Musk Win
Maine
Me-sen: Musk Loss
ME-2: Result TBD
Me-gov: Musk Loss
Michigan
Mi-sen: Musk Loss
MI-4: Result TBD
MI-7: Result TBD
Mi-8: Musk Loss
MI-10: Result TBD
Mi-gov: Musk Loss
Mi-ag: Musk Loss
Minnesota
MN-1: Result TBD
Mn-gov: Musk Loss
MN-AG: Result TBD
Mississippi
MS-SEN: Result TBD
Missouri
Mo-2: Musk Loss
Mo-7: Musk Win
Montana
MT-1: Result TBD
Nebraska
NE-SEN: Result TBD
Ne-2: Musk Loss
NE-GOV: Result TBD
Nevada
NV-1: Result TBD
NV-2: Result TBD
NV-3: Result TBD
NV-GOV: Result TBD
NV-AG: Result TBD
New Hampshire
Nh-sen: Musk Loss
Nh-1: Musk Loss
Nh-2: Musk Loss
Nh-gov: Musk Win
New Jersey
Nj-7: Musk Loss
New Mexico
Nm-2: Musk Loss
Nm-gov: Musk Loss
New York
NY-1: Result TBD
NY-3: Result TBD
NY-17: Result TBD
Ny-gov: Musk Loss
North Carolina
Nc-sen: Musk Loss
NC-1: Result TBD
NC-8: Result TBD
Nc-11: Musk Loss
Ohio
Oh-sen: Musk Loss
Oh-1: Musk Loss
Oh-5: Musk Win
Oh-6: Musk Win
Oh-7: Musk Loss
Oh-8: Musk Win
OH-9: Result TBD
OH-10: Result TBD
Oh-13: Musk Loss
Oh-15: Musk Loss
Oh-gov: Musk Loss
OH-AG: Result TBD
Oklahoma
Ok-gov: Musk Win
Oregon
OR-GOV: Result TBD
Pennsylvania
Pa-1: Musk Loss
Pa-7: Musk Loss
Pa-8: Musk Loss
Pa-10: Musk Loss
South Carolina
Sc-sen: Musk Loss
SC-1: Result TBD
Tennessee
Tn-5: Musk Win
TN-7: Result TBD
TN-9: Result TBD
Tn-gov: Musk Win
Texas
Tx-sen: Musk Loss
Tx-3: Musk Win
TX-9: Result TBD
Tx-15: Musk Loss
Tx-23: Musk Loss
Tx-26: Musk Win
Tx-28: Musk Loss
TX-32: Result TBD
Tx-34: Musk Loss
Tx-35: Musk Loss
Tx-gov: Musk Loss
TX-AG: Result TBD
Vermont
Vt-gov: Musk Win
Virginia
VA-1: Result TBD
Va-2: Musk Loss
VA-5: Result TBD
Washington
WA-3: Result TBD
WA-5: Result TBD
Wisconsin
Wi-1: Musk Loss
Wi-3: Musk Loss
Wi-8: Musk Win
Wi-gov: Musk Loss
Wi-ag: Musk Loss
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