Sentiment data and a speech by RBA Deputy Governor Bullock are highlights.
Senior economist Belinda Allen from Commonwealth Bank’s Global Economic and Markets Research team says the week ahead will feature sentiment data and a speech by RBA Deputy Governor Bullock as highlights.
“We expect the Westpac/ Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment measure [on Tuesday] to remain in deeply pessimistic territory. It fell by 0.9% in October and the weekly ANZ Roy Morgan survey has also shown recent weakness.”
The NAB business survey is also released on Tuesday and has shown considerable resilience in recent months. “We could see this continue in October given the lags in monetary policy transmission. The pricing measures in the survey will also be closely watched given inflationary pressures in the Australian economy. We will also release the CommBank Household Spending Intentions Index for October on Tuesday.”
The RBA Deputy Governor will deliver a speech on Wednesday night at the annual ABE dinner.
The topic of the speech is “The Economic Outlook”.
“Given the proximity of the speech to the release of the Statement on Monetary Policy [released today Friday November 4] we don’t expect too much new information. The Q&A session could be the highlight, particularly any commentary on where the balance of risks lie between pausing and resuming larger rate hikes after the summer break.”
Offshore the data flow is also relatively light. In the US the focus will be on October’s CPI print.
“We expect headline CPI accelerated in October, rising by 0.7%/mth due to higher gasoline prices (annual rate ~8%). We also expect core CPI to rise by 0.5% due to ongoing tightness in the labour market now leading to higher services costs. Inflation data is also released in China. In contrast to the US we expect annual inflation of 2.5%/yr for October. Q3 22 GDP data in the UK is due and we expect a contraction in economic activity of ‑0.2%/qtr.”
In New Zealand, our ASB colleagues note inflation expectations are expected to remain sticky at higher levels, while the REINZ Housing data should be soggy, says Allen.
“Card spending data for October should lift by 1% while a seasonal fall in fruity and vegetable prices should see the first fall in food prices for eight months,” she says.