Democrats won control of the Senate after flipping seats Republicans have held for decades in a decisive blue wave that will be widely viewed as a rebuke of President Donald Trump’s second-term agenda.
Key Facts
The Associated Press called the Senate for Democrats late Tuesday night as Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek’s win in Iowa over GOP Rep. Ashley Hinson gave them enough seats to regain the majority, one of six Senate seats Democrats have flipped.
The Democrats further strengthened their majority after AP called the Minnesota Senate race was for Democrat and current Lt. Gov.Peggy Flanagan, who beat GOP candidate and former sports broadcaster Michele Tafoya.
Democrats needed a net gain of four seats to win control of the Senate and had won 52 Senate contests, compared to Republicans’ 39 when the AP called the race.
Talarico flipped the seat blue despite Republicans vastly outspending Democrats in the most expensive race of this year’s midterm cycle.
Democratic Rev. Adam Hamilton ousted Sen. Roger Marshall in the Kansas Senate race, making Hamilton the first Democrat elected to represent Kansas in the Senate since 1932.
Democratic former Sen. Sherrod Brown won the Ohio Senate contest, beating Sen. Jon Husted in a toss-up race crucial to Republicans’ chances of maintaining control of the Senate.
Democrat Annie Andrews scored one of the most stunning victories of the night by beating Sen. Darline Graham, R-S.C., the late Sen. Lindsey Graham’s sister who was appointed by the state’s Republican governor to complete her brother’s term after his death in July and was backed by Trump for a full term.
North Carolina’s former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper beat Trump-endorsed former Republican National Committee chair Michael Whatley in the North Carolina Senate race, according to the Associated Press, flipping the seat held by retiring GOP Sen. Thom Tillis and becoming the first Democrat to win a Senate race there since 2008.
Rep. Byron Donalds, R-Fla., won the Florida governor’s race to succeed Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis, beating Democratic former Rep. David Jolly in a tight race.
Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas won the New Hampshire Senate race over Republican John Sununu—making Pappas the first openly gay man elected to the Senate.
Republican Sen. Ashley Moody, who was appointed to replace Secretary of State Marco Rubio when he joined Trump’s Cabinet, staved off a challenge in Florida from Democratic state Rep. Angie Nixon, a democratic socialist, with Moody narrowly ahead 51% to 48% when the Associated Press called the race with 96% of votes counted.
Sen. Jon Ossoff, D-Ga., won reelection with 64% of the vote over Republican Rep. Mike Collins (36%) when the Associated Press called the race—an expected win as most polls showed Ossoff’s lead growing as Election Day neared, though the race was considered in reach for Collins.
Democratic incumbent governors in Maryland (Wes Moore), Pennsylvania (Josh Shapiro) and Illinois (J.B. Pritzker) also won their races, as expected.
Six Senate races were rated as toss ups by Cook Political Report: Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio and Texas, five of which Trump won by double digits in 2024 (Texas, Iowa, Alaska, Kansas and Ohio).
Headed into election night, Democrats were also projected to flip the House, with polls predicting the party will gain significantly more than the three seats they need to retake control, including some in historically red districts.
What do exit polls show?
A CNN exit poll found about 60% of voters nationally disapprove of Trump’s job performance, including about one-fifth of Trump’s 2024 backers (the exit poll combined in-person interviews with voters on Election Day with tens of thousands of interviews conducted in the weeks prior). The survey found around 90% of voters said the cost of living was a crucial or major factor in their votes. About 75% said they are dissatisfied with the way things are going in the country, and two-thirds blame Trump for worsening economic conditions. An Associated Press exit poll also found widespread pessimism. More than half of voters say they expect life to be worse for the next generation. About 80% said inflation has caused a “severe” or “moderate” financial hardship on their households, and more than 80% said they are “very” or “somewhat” concerned about the cost of gas, groceries, utilities and healthcare. Around two-thirds said Trump’s policies have made economic conditions in the U.S. worse, while only about 30% said they’ve made them better. Approximately 60% said Trump is more concerned about his own personal interests than the country’s. About 60% say the U.S. made the “wrong decision” in attacking Iran and one-third said the Iran war was a crucial factor in their votes for Congress.
Where Could Reporting of Results Be Delayed?
Voting machine issues in Westchester County, New York, are expected to delay election results, including in Rep. Mike Lawler’s, R-N.Y., competitive race. Lawler told CNN he expected results to extend “into the wee hours of tomorrow morning.” North Carolina is also expected to see a slight delay in results due to “minor disruptions.”
what happened on election day?
Trump sent at least 20 Democrats letters Tuesday suggesting they’re “targets” in a criminal investigation over potential voter confusion in Alaska, multiple outlets report—which does not necessarily mean they’ll be charged—as the Trump administration probes candidate Daniel J. Sullivan’s candidacy in the state’s Senate race and whether it was intentionally orchestrated by Democrats to confuse supporters of Sen. Daniel S. Sullivan, the Republican incumbent. Trump also chided media outlets on Tuesday for what he viewed as negative reporting on his final midterm speech at the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool on Monday, claiming the Daily Mail and others took him seriously when he said he planned to rename the memorial after himself, which he said was a joke. Florida’s Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis expressed concerns about his party’s chances in the state’s neck-and-neck gubernatorial and Senate races, saying at an event that Democrats are “energized” while there’s “wind in the Republicans’ faces” and predicting “it’s certainly possible we’ll lose one or two” top races “if our voters don’t turn out well today.”Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger announced Georgia was on pace to have 1.2 million ballots cast Tuesday—a number that could be bad news for Republicans as they face high-stakes Senate and gubernatorial races, as the Atlanta Journal-Constitution notes GOP strategists believed they needed at least 1.5 million votes cast on Election Day to overcome sluggish early voting among Republicans.
What other senate races are competitive?
Aside from the toss ups, several other Senate contests are expected to be close, including Michigan, Florida, South Carolina, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Minnesota and Georgia. The final New York Times/Siena poll released Monday found Democrats ahead in all six toss-up contests, and up by double digits in Michigan.
Democrats Favored To Win The House
Cook estimates Democrats will pick up as many as 25 House seats, which would give them their largest majority since 2009. Cook rates 23 seats as toss ups, with only four of those held by Democrats. Several seats rated as competitive are in deep red districts, including the one held by Rep. Max Miller, R-Ohio, who is facing Democrat Brian Poindexter. Miller’s campaign has been rocked by his child custody battle with Sen. Bernie Moreno’s, R-Ohio, daughter and abuse allegations (which he denies). Kentucky’s 6th Congressional District, which Trump won by 15 points in 2024, Montana’s 1st (+12 Trump) and Iowa’s 2nd (+10 Trump) are also competitive.
Key Background
Democrats entered Election Day widely expected to pick up multiple Senate seats, as polls consistently show Democratic candidates leading most key races. Republicans flipped the chamber in the 2024 election after four years of Democratic control. Prior to Democrats regaining control in the 2020 election, Republicans held the majority since the 2014 election. Trump’s low approval rating—largely driven by cost-of-living concerns and high gas prices due to the Iran war—are widely considered to be dragging down the Republican ticket.
What To Expect If Democrats Win One Or Both Chambers
Democrats are eyeing numerous investigations related to Trump and his allies if they retake control of one or both chambers of Congress. A significant portion are expected to center around Trump’s personal business dealings and whether he has used the presidency to enrich himself financially. Trump has become significantly richer since he was elected for a second time. Forbes estimates his net worth has grown by at least $2.7 billion, driven largely by his cryptocurrency ventures. Elon Musk—whose businesses have received billions of dollars in new government contracts during Trump’s second term—is expected to be a prominent target for probes, as are Jeffey Epstein associates, including Trump. Trump said Monday he might pre-emptively pardon Musk and members of his administration to protect them if Democrats win. Democrats, so far, have shown little appetite for impeaching Trump for a third time, however, as the effort would be unlikely to secure the two-thirds support it needs in the Senate. A simple majority vote in the House would be enough to impeach the president.
California Voters To Decide On Billionaire Tax
Proposition 40 would impose a one-time 5% tax on the approximately 260 billionaires in the state. Some have poured millions into fighting it. Google co-founder Sergey Brin has given more than $100 million to support the Building a Better California political action committee that created two competing measures, Propositions 41 and 42, that could cancel out Proposition 40. Proposition 41 would prohibit exemptions, such as the one included in Proposition 40, on state spending limits from revenues collected in new taxes. Proposition 42 would prohibit wealth taxes and retroactive taxes. The measure with the most votes wins. The state’s 10 wealthiest billionaires could pay $31.5 billion collectively if Proposition 40 prevails, Forbes estimated previously, with Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg leading the pack with a potential bill of $10.9 billion. He is now the richest person in the state after others, including Brin and Google cofounder Larry Page, left. We estimate Page saved upward of $11.6 billion by leaving, while Brin avoided a bill of about $11 billion.
Multiple Communities Weigh Data Center Moratoriums
Communities in states including Ohio, Illinois, Wisconsin, California, Florida, Nevada, New Jersey, North Dakota, Kansas and Maine all have data center issues on their ballots. There are 21 ballot issues related to data centers in Ohio, including bans in 13 municipalities—the most of any state by far. Data centers have become known as a “third rail” in this year’s midterm cycle, as voters have soured on the AI power centers, citing concerns about rising electricity bills and power and water consumption, among others, though polls show they’re more unpopular among Democrats than Republicans.
Big Number
38%. That’s Trump’s approval rating in Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin poll tracker. Trump had a 40% approval rating the week beginning Oct. 29, 2018, and former President Joe Biden also had a 40% approval rating halfway through his term, according to Gallup.
What To Watch For
Progressives’ performance will be considered a barometer for 2028 as the Democratic Party works to rebuild its identity after a disastrous 2024 campaign cycle. Several, including Democratic state Rep. James Talarico in Texas, Democrat Troy Jackson in Maine and Democratic Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan in Minnesota, are running in close Senate races. Recent high-profile left-wing wins—such as Democratic socialist New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s election and Michigan Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed’s primary win—have indicated a leftward shift in the party, but it’s unclear if those successes would translate to wins on the national stage in a presidential election year.
Surprising Fact
Rev. Adam Hamilton could be the first Democrat elected to represent Kansas in the Senate since George McGill in 1932. A New York Times/Siena poll released Monday found Hamilton leading GOP Sen. Roger Marshall 49% to 44%.
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